tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7028277656181502889.post6225198191071082514..comments2023-08-22T10:26:37.001-04:00Comments on Tom's Blog: Advice to Average Investors (That is you and me!):Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15586888987864426986noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7028277656181502889.post-248185148577248032010-09-27T19:35:07.360-04:002010-09-27T19:35:07.360-04:00White House invitation ...
In remarks of 4/19/201...White House invitation ...<br /><br />In remarks of 4/19/2010, President Obama said, as before and since, “... we knew that we couldn’t keep repeating a pattern of bubble and bust that we’d been seeing; that it wasn’t a tenable model for our future ...”. Taking this goal at face value, the future may be much different than the past. Here are two asset price histories exhibiting bubble and bust (I like ‘serial herd behavior’):<br />“Real Homes, Real Dow” at<br />http://homepage.mac.com/ttsmyf/RHandRD.html<br /><br />Might folks want to be attentive to the past’s ‘long-term averages’ ... rather than extremes ...?<br />For Real Homes, "Two gains in recent decades were followed by returns to levels consistent since the late 1950's.", 8/27/2006 N.Y. Times, quoted here (and see first chart):<br />http://homepage.mac.com/ttsmyf/RD_RJShomes_PSav.html<br />For Real Dow, the 70.3 year best fit +1.64%/year growth curve is included here (as are the 3 Fed Chair warnings):<br />http://homepage.mac.com/ttsmyf/recDJIAtoRD.html<br /><br />Notably, the financial sector hardly ever shows you these two real histories. Letting the financial sector do your informing/thinking for you is obviously plenty hazardous.Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09834046795231444429noreply@blogger.com